![]() ![]() The impacts will be especially strong in three areas: Africa comprises all countries of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCTA).Mercosur includes its current active members-Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.The European Union includes all 27 current member countries.The 2022 model uses the following definitions for regional organizations and areas: ASEAN trade-in particular, ASEAN-US and ASEAN-EU exports-rise at a faster rate than in the past due to a reduction in the growth of China exports to the US and the EU.The EU implements its carbon border tax (CBAM) in 2026, as planned.No significant new trade agreements are established in the 2023–2031 period.Russia trade is diverted mainly to China, India, and other emerging markets.The EU successfully ends its dependence on Russian energy by 2027.The EU and US stop trading with Russia for the forecast period, except for critical supplies.The ongoing sanctions regime against Russia and Belarus remain in place through 2031.The 2022 model includes a number of notable geopolitical assumptions, including the following: The team establishes adjustment scores and applies these, on a percentage basis, to a five-year baseline trade forecast and uses this to create the ten-year trade projection. These factors may include influences such as new trade agreements, trade wars, military conflicts and related sanctions, and climate-related trade policies. Once the baseline is established, the BCG Global Advantage and BCG X teams incorporate adjustments that factor in geopolitical events or trends that influence global trade but are not captured by the baseline model. Trade values are expressed in constant 2021 US dollars. It includes manufactured products and raw materials services are excluded. ![]() The baseline output of the model covers more than 180 exporting countries and more than 5,000 product categories in 22 sectors. Inputs for the raw data forecasts come from reputable sources such as governments, international financial institutions, and economic analysis firms. The model uses ten years of historical data and ten-year forecasts that are based on the correlations among data such as GDP growth, key commodity prices, and certain macroeconomic indicators. BCG Global Advantage (BCG’s global risk advisory group) and BCG X (the firm’s global data and analytics team) established the model in the early 2010s, and they have continued to improve and refine it on an ongoing basis. The 2022 BCG Global Trade Model is based on an analytical approach that projects global trade in goods, from 2022 to 2031. Technology, Media, and Telecommunications. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |